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    November 15

    从2012到Bayesian method

    今天下午在AMC看了2012，晚上在红勘吃了巴蜀烤全鱼
    出来以后谈论的话题都围绕如下：
    第一， 感觉生命真的很渺小，顷刻之间就能灰飞湮灭
    第二，地球的状况日渐不稳定，有一天地球是不是就要真像电影里一样翻天覆地
    第三，会开车开飞机真的很重要，是不是从现在要开始学，哪天地球爆了就使劲往西藏冲
    第四，西藏真的不能独立，要不两年内诺亚方舟也建不出来，引用电影的话，only Chinese can do it.  (廉价劳动力外加“绿霸”）
    第五条，也是最好玩的一条，从2012到Bayesian method：
    电影里的全球地质simulation, 在得到新的东印度海啸的消息以后，输入新的data, 从新run simulation, 预计impact时间从7小时直接跳到28分钟，由此总结prior很重要，prior差之毫厘，simulation result失之千里。 回想到去年我的thesis没成稿直接丢弃的最后一part：Bayesian estimation, simulate出来的垃圾posterior distribution, 却也是垃圾prior外加垃圾data使然......也难怪一些econometrician直接对bayesian method嗤之以鼻.......一句话精确度太差......
     
     
     
    另再update最近几月看的电影：
     
    1. 變形金剛狂派再起 (Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen)星空奇遇記 (STAR TREK)
    2. 風聲 (The Message)
    3. X战警前传：金刚狼 （X-Men Origins: Wolverine）
    4. 新娘大战 (Bride Wars) 
    5. 蔷花红莲 (The Uninvited)
    6. 鬼妈妈 (Coraline)
    7. 怪兽大战外星人 (Monsters Vs. Aliens)
    8. 速度与激情4 (Fast and Furious)
    9.     七龙珠：进化 (Dragonball Evolution)
    10.     天使与恶魔 (Angels and Demon)
    11. 博物馆奇妙夜2：决战史密森尼 (Night at the Museum 2: Battle of the Smithsonia­n)
    12.     终结者4：救世主 (Terminator Salvation)
    13. 冰河世纪3：恐龙的黎明 (Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs)
    14. 哈利·波特与混血王子 (Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince)
    15.     黑夜传说前传：狼族再起 （Underworld: Rise of the Lycans）
    16. 骑劫铁车123  （The Talking of Pelham 123）
    17. 可可·香奈儿 (Coco Chanel) 
    18.     宿醉 （The Hangover）
    19. 死神来了4 （The Final Destination）
    20. 建国大业 （The Founding of A Republic）
    10:16 PM | Blog it

    Comments (11)

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    Ho Ming Liwrote:
    大犯罪家 (public enemies) 也不錯. "I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast car...and you. What else do you need to know?" Isn't this very cool?



    Nov. 18
    Rui Costawrote:
    wkao，你这个list里面，我就看了最后一个，还是公司发的票
    nnd我也太out了
    Nov. 16
    joyce wangwrote:
    看電影還能看到學術。。。。
    Nov. 16
    Rachel WUwrote:
    回vicky: 对的，建国大业也很不是我的风格，不过鉴于是国庆那天看的就算了
    Nov. 16
    Julie 焦wrote:
    第三点里面补充一小点：会游泳也很重要!
    Nov. 16
    Ning Zhangwrote:
    很发散，很学术
    Nov. 16
    Junjian YIwrote:
    ^_^，Bayesian method就直接成了垃圾
    Nov. 16
    Vickywrote:
    建国大业也狂不像你的风格。。。
    Nov. 16
    Rachel WUwrote:
    风声才不是我的风格。。。。。。
    Nov. 16
    Vickywrote:
    哈，看电影看出来的感想真多阿。。。ps,你连可可·香奈儿都看了。。。真不是你的风格阿。。。。
    Nov. 15
    Juni Zhuwrote:
    丫還真能看...
    Nov. 15

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